SpaceX, taken apart
The question is not whether $151 is cheap or expensive. It is: if you buy at $151, which assumptions are you paying for? Believers buy, sceptics pass, but either way you should know what you are believing.
The approach: one company, three completely different businesses. Take them apart, value each against its own peers, then add them back together.
Disclaimer · This material is for personal research and educational discussion only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation, nor a basis for buying or selling any security. The presenter holds a position in SPCX and may have a conflict of interest. Investing involves risk; make your own judgement and bear the consequences of your own decisions.
Three businesses, eight names
Founded 2002 · HQ Starbase, Texas · 22,000 employees · 2025 revenue $18.7B · Listed 2026-06-12
Priced at $135, a full round trip in three months
| Unlock | Shares | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 912M | Done |
| 2026-08-20 | 319M | Done · fell below $135 that day |
| 2026-09-09 | 319M | Done |
| 2026-09-10 | 59M | Done |
| 2026-12-09 | Undisclosed | 180-day lock-up expires · inferred from 6/12 |
| Cursor 389M shares | — | Issued 8/14 · lock-up terms undisclosed |
| EchoStar 262M shares | — | Spectrum deal pending closing |
- Four unlocks so far total 1.61B shares, about 12% of shares outstanding; the float has grown from 640M shares at the IPO.
- Sell side, 10 analysts: 9 buy / 1 hold / 0 sell. Consensus target $207, range $75–450.
Revenue +66% quarter on quarter, from consolidating xAI
xAI was consolidated on 2 February 2026, so Q2 is the first full quarter. Watch four lines: revenue, adjusted EBITDA, capex, free cash flow.
| Consolidated ($M) | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q2 YoY | Q2 QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,067 | 4,071 | 4,694 | 7,814 | +92% | +66% |
| Gross margin | 51.8% | — | 49.1% | 55.3% | ||
| R&D | 1,557 | — | 3,514 | 3,548 | 45% of revenue | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,702 | 1,214 | 1,138 | 3,538 | +191% | +211% |
| Net income | −528 | −1,008 | −4,276 | −541 | ||
| Operating cash flow | 727 | — | 1,047 | 2,419 | ||
| Capex | 4,140 | 2,825 | 10,107 | 18,369 | ×6.5 | ×1.8 |
| Free cash flow | −3,413 | — | −9,060 | −15,950 |
Adjusted EBITDA = operating income + D&A + stock-based compensation (this method gives 3,536 for Q2 against the disclosed 3,538; Q1 is derived the same way). Q2'25 has only the four items disclosed in the earnings 8-K. Period-end cash and marketable securities $100.0B, interest-bearing debt $39.5B.
Full-year base: 2025 revenue $18.7B (Starlink $11.4B, 61%); Q2 annualised is $31.3B, +67% on full-year 2025.
Three pieces: Space · Connectivity · AI
| Q2'26 ($M) | Revenue | YoY | Adj. EBITDA | Margin | Capex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | 962 | +29% | −205 | −21% | 1,174 |
| Connectivity | 4,291 | +66% | 2,597 | 60.5% | 1,367 |
| AI | 2,561 | +247% | 1,146 | 44.7% | 15,828 |
| Total | 7,814 | +92% | 3,538 | 45.3% | 18,369 |
Revenue mix 55 / 33 / 12 · Capex mix 7 / 6 / 86
12 million subscribers, 60% EBITDA margin
| Peer | Market cap | EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM Iridium | $5.0B | 7.4× | 15.5× | Mature satcom · revenue +5% |
| VSAT Viasat | $10.2B | 3.3× | 8.6× | Mature satellite broadband |
| TMUS T-Mobile | $188.7B | 3.3× | 10.7× | Wireless carrier |
| GSAT Globalstar | $10.6B | 37.6× | 169× | Apple-backed · thin margins |
| ASTS AST SpaceMobile | $25.2B | 225× | — | Direct-to-cell satellite · near-zero revenue |
Already profitable, but eating 86% of capex
| Peer | Market cap | EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV CoreWeave | $49.9B | 12.5× | 37.3× | AI compute cloud · revenue +168% |
| NBIS Nebius | $55.0B | 42.1× | 59.7× | AI compute cloud |
| ORCL Oracle | $449B | 8.5× | 17.9× | Cloud |
| META Meta | $1,654B | 7.7× | 16.4× | Advertising · comparable for X |
Cursor closed on 8/14, $60B all-stock, not in the Q2 numbers; valued separately at the deal price.
| AI revenue · four ways to count it | Figure | Meaning | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recognised revenue | Q2 $2.56B → $10.2B annualised | Actually booked in Q2: compute $2.19B + advertising $0.37B | 8-K |
| Signed non-cancellable contracts | $14.1B | The portion of contracts that cannot be cancelled · customer not named | 8-K |
| Management run-rate | $3.75B / quarter → $15B annualised | Quarterly level once the compute business reaches full capacity · customer not named | Prospectus FWP · CFO interview |
| Anthropic contract, total value | About $45B over three years | $1.25B per month through 2029-05 · i.e. the row above × 3 years | Reported second-hand in a video · not verified against the filing |
Actual Q2 compute revenue was $2.19B, short of $3.75B, because the contract ramps with Colossus II capacity. $14.1B is a hard number; $45B only materialises if fully delivered.
Smallest revenue, biggest imagination
| Peer | Market cap | EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB Rocket Lab | $36.6B | 44.9× | negative | Launch · revenue +38% · EBITDA loss |
| LMT Lockheed | $121.9B | 1.8× | 14.1× | Defence contractor |
| NOC Northrop | $73.9B | — | — | Defence / space |
Starship flight 12 in May, flight 13 in July. Management's framing: "cut the cost to orbit by more than 99%".
1 GW ≈ 10,000 units of 100 kW ≈ 100 Starship launches. Rideshare pricing today is about $7,000/kg; it needs to fall to $100–200/kg just to break even and $10–20/kg to make sense.
Cooling by radiation (the T⁴ law), radiation handled by shielding: the physics all works. He personally bets on reaching 1 GW by 2029.
Conclusion: "physically feasible, economically not yet." That is exactly why Starship is treated as a separate option.
Three scenarios: $366B · $730B · $1,316B
| $B | Connectivity | AI | Cursor | Space | Starship | Net cash | Total | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear · 12× / 8× / 10× / $0 | 125 | 82 | 60 | 38 | 0 | 60 | 366 | $27 |
| Base · 20× / 20× / 25× / $100B | 208 | 205 | 60 | 96 | 100 | 60 | 730 | $54 |
| Bull · 30× / 40× / 45× / $300B | 312 | 410 | 60 | 173 | 300 | 60 | 1,316 | $97 |
Current price $151.61. On the latest quarter annualised, none of the three scenarios reaches the market cap, which tells you the market is not pricing today's level of business.
The same multiples, applied to the next three years of consensus revenue
| Consensus | Revenue | Range | Analysts | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026E | $43B | 35 – 48 | 16 | $61 |
| 2027E | $104B | 70 – 140 | 16 | $134 |
| 2028E | $177B | 60 – 279 | 17 | $221 |
- The current price sits between 2027E and 2028E, closer to 2027E.
- The 2028E consensus range is $60B – $279B, a 4.6× spread from low to high.
- $177B is 5.7 times today's annualised revenue.
What each segment has to deliver
$100B of cash lasts about 1.4 years at the Q2 pace ($73B annualised capex); operating cash flow is $2.4B a quarter.
The ones you can read straight off the filings
| Risk | Number | What to watch next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Capex vs cash | $18.4B / quarter · cash $100B | Whether Q3 capex keeps climbing |
| Starlink ARPU decline | $85 → $66 | Whether it stabilises or keeps trading price for volume |
| Fewer launches | 46 → 38 · mass to orbit −26% | Q3 launch count, Starship flight 14 |
| Widening Space segment loss | −93 → −205 | Whether Starship R&D keeps consuming launch profits |
| Unlocks and dilution | 13.18B → 13.84B shares (pro forma) | Around 12/9 · Cursor and EchoStar shares |
| Cursor, $60B all-stock | Revenue undisclosed | Its contribution once first consolidated |
| Governance | Musk holds about 85% of voting power | Mandatory arbitration for shareholder claims, no class actions, derivative suits require a 3% stake (about $45B); three pension funds have already written jointly |
The governance terms come from the prospectus, which also acknowledges a "high degree of dependence" on Musk personally.
Where every number comes from
Primary sources
· 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (segment revenue, share count, balance sheet, backlog)
· Q2 2026 earnings 8-K (segment adjusted EBITDA, subscribers/ARPU, launch count, compute, segment capex)
· 8-K, 2026-08-14 (Cursor acquisition terms)
· Price: IBKR real-time, 2026-09-10 · daily prices and peers: FMP · sell-side consensus: FMP aggregate · lock-up schedule: as reported by GuruFocus
Secondary sources (a Silicon Valley 101 video's reading of the prospectus; the S-1 was not checked directly)
· Anthropic contract size and term, 2025 full-year revenue and Starlink share, governance terms: "The largest IPO in history: SpaceX is no longer just rockets"
· Economics of compute in orbit, launch-cost range, 1 GW by 2029: "E239 | SpaceX wants to take compute in orbit from science fiction to reality, but does it pay?"
Derived figures
· Q1 2026 segment revenue = six-month figure − Q2
· Q1 adjusted EBITDA = operating income + D&A + stock-based compensation
· Annualised = Q2 × 4
· Share count = Class A + B on the 10-Q cover, 13.18B, + Cursor 391M = 13.57B
· Net cash = cash and marketable securities $100.0B − interest-bearing debt $39.5B
· 180-day lock-up expiry = 6/12 + 180 days
A note on method
· Every multiple is a judgement. The ranges show where peers trade, not what the number should be.
· Starship is valued separately as an option because it has no revenue and no comparable.
· Cursor is carried at the deal price because there is no better information.
· Page 10 assumes the revenue mix (55/33/12) and the Connectivity margin stay constant.
· The sell-side 2028 consensus range is 4.6× wide.
Disclaimer · This material is for personal research and educational discussion only. It is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation, nor a basis for buying or selling any security. The presenter holds a position in SPCX and may have a conflict of interest. Investing involves risk; make your own judgement and bear the consequences of your own decisions.